Save Lives and Protect Livelihoods

 

The Covid 19,a disease caused by a novel coronavirus called SARS-CoV2,has spread quickly around the globe, creating a public health catastrophe all over the world. Although the world nations are taking measures to control this menace, the lives and livelihoods of the people are on hold at a significant social and economic cost to the society. This pandemic has wide spread and hit the market economies hard with the growing toll of illness and lost lives.“ The outbreak of coronavirus is disrupting people’s lives and interrupting business and other economic activities around the world.”(Masatsugu Asakawa,President ADB).This is  first  and foremost a health crisis put nations and individuals at great risk. Therefore the  challenge we face today is different in its  nature and scope than we faced before.

At this juncture, there is a dire need of  the revival of a short-term fiscal policy, provision of public good and relief package to low- and middle-income  farm households and to state and local government. In this context “ short term fiscal policy should aim at channelizing the public expenditure to equip medical personnel, and people who affected by Covid 19 pandemic” said Cesar Calderon, World Bank Lead Economist. “But it is also important to consider that most workers in the region are engaged in the large informal sector where they lack benefits of insurance, unemployment benefits and paid leave.  They usually need to work every day  to earn their living and pay for the their basic household necessities. A large prolonged lockdown would put their basic survival at great risk.”

Therefore, the fiscal policy approach is with two primary objectives-to save lives and protect livelihoods. Immediate actions to consider include  strengthening health system, implementing social protection programs including cash transfers and social grants.

Unfortunately the burden is on the grass root level of the society.  The provision of public good is necessary to offer relief to those who are suffering. And there is a requirement of safe drinking water, sanitation amidst urban sprawling, weak health systems in a large informal economy of major  metropolitan regions  of  the nation while battling with this  plaguing situation.

Certainly, this pandemic led to various undesirable  consequences  in enormous population centres of  UP and Bihar to the sprawling  cities like Maharashtra,  TamilNadu, Andra Pradesh,  Delhi and to great extent to Kerala in search of employment. Finally various state governments had to play a significant role to fight the battle. One such example is of Kerala State which was under Communist rule more than three decades and  invested tremendously in public health and education.

The Kerala Model

Although Kerala was the first state to report a  Covid 19 case in late January, the success of Kerala model proved it could stop the spread of a contagion  amidst the challenge of high population density through its proactive measures like early detection, longer quarantine, contact tracing, building shelters for migrant workers, distributing cooked meals  and adequate social support. According to Henk Bekedam, the World Health Organisation’s representative in India, this is mainly attributed to its past experience of combating Nippah Virus and its investment in emergency preparedness  with community engagement. Indeed it was a disastrous challenge with high number of foreign arrivals, one sixth of its 33 million citizens are expatriates, thousands of its students study in China, UK and Europe and millions  of its nurses are   in the health care profession  all over the world.

In the first week of April Kerala had conducted more than 13000 tests ,that is 10 percentage of  all test across India, By comparison ,Andhra Pradesh ,nearly 6000 tests, while Tamil Nadu 8000 tests. However “ cluster cases” are first reported in Karnataka, the state government has decided to ensure designated quarantine facilities. A third of all cases are in Maharashra and Tamil Nadu. Research shows that some of the 15 states and /UTs need to make a deliberate effort to flatten the  Covid curve.

The so-called exponential curve is a cause of great worry to the experts all over the world. Researches shows Covid 19 will continue to spread exponentially for months. In a country like the United States, with its 330 million people, the curve steepen for a long time. Therefore the articulation of forced quarantine strategy( Chinese government imposed on Hubei Province) is a rational solution to slow spread of the virus before it infects the masses in any state or region.

Developing countries in East Asia and the Pacific(EAP) suffer from trade tensions as the virus that triggered a supply shock  in China has ultimately caused a global shock resulting financial jerk and recession across the world. In a rapidly changing environment, the entire globe stand still and the developing countries like India has to follow sound macroeconomic policies to deal with the tremours. There is severe supply shock in the Indian cities and towns as well since the virus hit hard the supply chain and the logistics, such circumstances are evident in metropolitan cities like Bengaluru as there are cases of delayed deliveries by online stores like Bigbasket which cater the need of many in the city.

The Covid 19  also has a serious impact on poverty. Nearly 24 million fewer people will escape poverty across the region in 2020 than would have in the absence of the pandemic(using poverty line of  US$5.50/day).If the situation deteriorate further, the repercussions will be more on developing countries. Therefore, the targeted fiscal measures are inevitable. In addition to national action international cooperation is a must to vaccine against this crisis.

It is a twin challenge of doctors treating patients  and policy maker articulating strategy, hence various state governments find it tough to relax the lockdowns as the potential cost to the human life is huge. Thanks to the people on the frontline  trying to defeat the outbreaks risking their lives, those working in health care,  doctors and nurses, delivery agents and countless many to care  for us and to ensure the necessities at this difficult time. Mitigating measures need to be lifted as an exit strategy from Covid 19 that  flattens the epidemic curve while overcoming extraordinarily challenging times.

(an article in the backdrop of first wave of covid in India,in February 2020)